National Bureau of Economic Research
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Unpacking the Union Wage Premium
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There is broad agreement that the wages of unionized workers are higher than those of workers who are not union members. There is less consensus, however, on the source of this wage premium and in particular the extent to which it reflects actions by unions rather than differences between union members and other workers or unionized and other firms. In Why Do Union Jobs Pay More? New Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data (NBER Working Paper 33740), Pierre-Loup Beauregard, Thomas Lemieux, Derek Messacar, and Raffaele Saggio…
From the NBER Bulletin on Retirement and Disability
NBER Retirement and Disability Research Center Winds Down Operations
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This is the final issue of the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, coinciding with the closure of the NBER Retirement and Disability Research Center (RDRC). The RDRC was a vibrant hub of research activity from 2003 to 2025 and had a significant impact on stimulating analytic work on Social Security and the wellbeing of Social Security beneficiaries across a wide community of investigators at universities across the United States.
Over 22 years, from the launch of the NBER Retirement Research Center in 2003, through the addition of the NBER Disability Research Center in 2012 and their consolidation into the NBER Retirement and Disability Research Center in 2019, to the closing of the Centers program this year, the RDRC supported more than 400 research projects.
The RDRC was funded by the Social Security Administration (SSA) through a cooperative agreement...
From the NBER Reporter: Research, program, and conference summaries

Collusion in Public Procurement
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In both developed and developing countries, annual spending on public procurement averages about 12 percent of national GDP. The efficiency of public procurement can have a long-run impact on the growth and productivity of countries. A major challenge in achieving efficiency, however, is the possibility of collusion among suppliers. Collusive agreements increase prices, leading to wasted tax dollars or, in the case of developing countries, wasted foreign aid. These agreements often shield inefficient firms from competition, diverting resource allocation to low-performing sectors of the economy. Furthermore, the transparency requirements inherent to public procurement, such as public databases of past tenders and associated bids, can facilitate the coordination and enforcement of collusive...
From the NBER Bulletin on Health

Medicaid’s Lifesaving Effects on Low-Income Adults
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Lower-income adults in the US are more likely to lack health insurance and to suffer worse health, a correlation that raises the long-standing question of whether health insurance affects health. In Saved by Medicaid: New Evidence on Health Insurance and Mortality from the Universe of Low-Income Adults (NBER Working Paper 33719), Angela Wyse and Bruce D. Meyer present new evidence on this question by evaluating the consequences of recent Medicaid expansions.
To study the impact of Medicaid on mortality, the researchers exploit variation in the state-level adoption and timing of expansions of Medicaid eligibility to childless, nondisabled, non-elderly adults. Most, but…
From the NBER Bulletin on Entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship as an Alternative to Flexibility at Work
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The surge in remote work in recent years has transformed labor markets, with potentially important implications for the interaction between workplace flexibility and entrepreneurship. In Hustling from Home? Work from Home Flexibility and Entrepreneurial Entry (NBER Working Paper 33237), John M. Barrios, Yael Hochberg, and Hanyi (Livia) Yi explore whether the increased flexibility provided by work-from-home (WFH) arrangements has affected entrepreneurial decisions. They focus on the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment and analyze how the sudden shift to remote work affected new business creation. Guided…
Featured Working Papers
Interbank wholesale funding plays an important part in monetary policy transmission in China. Since 2018, Chinese non-state banks that rely on such funding have experienced larger increases in expected capital shortfalls than comparable state-owned banks, according to Kaiji Chen, Yiqing Xiao, and Tao Zha.
In simulations of AI-powered securities trading, Winston Wei Dou, Itay Goldstein, and Yan Ji find that AI market speculators trained to trade based on reinforcement-learning algorithms autonomously sustain collusive supra-competitive profits without agreement or communication.
High temperatures during the growing season reduce crop yields, and rural Indian households have limited capacity to adapt. Paul Stainier, Manisha Shah, and Alan Barreca find evidence of higher numbers of strongly undernourished households in the year following a very hot growing season.
Adam Bloomfield, Lucas Goodman, Shanthi Ramnath, and Sita Slavov find that only 5.5 percent of eligible firms took advantage of a tax credit for offering employer-sponsored retirement plans that became available in the early 2000s.
California enacted a $20 fast food minimum wage in September 2023, to take effect in April 2024. In the year following enactment, employment in the state’s fast food sector declined by 2.7 percent (18,000 jobs) relative to fast food employment elsewhere in the US, according to Jeffrey Clemens, Olivia Edwards, and Jonathan Meer.
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